WASHINGTON: A preliminary US intelligence assessment has determined that US strikes over the weekend on Iranian nuclear facilities have set back Tehran’s programme by only a matter of months, three sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters.
The initial report was prepared by the Defense Intelligence Agency, the Pentagon’s main intelligence arm and one of 18 US intelligence agencies, said two of the sources, who requested anonymity to discuss classified matters.
The assessment found that Iran could restart its nuclear programme in a matter of months, according to the three sources, one of whom said it estimated the earliest restart could be in one to two months.
The classified assessment is at odds with the statements of President Donald Trump and high-ranking US officials – including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. They have said the weekend strikes, which used a combination of bunker-busting bombs and more conventional weapons, essentially eliminated Iran’s nuclear programme.
Trump’s administration on Tuesday told the UN Security Council that its weekend strikes had “degraded” Iran’s nuclear programme, short of Trump’s earlier assertion that the facilities had been “obliterated”.
Asked for comment, the White House pointed to a statement by spokesperson Karoline Leavitt to CNN, which first reported the assessment, that the “alleged” conclusion was “flat-out wrong.”
“Everyone knows what happens when you drop fourteen 30,000 pound bombs perfectly on their targets: total obliteration,” she said.
“The leaking of this alleged assessment is a clear attempt to demean President Trump, and discredit the brave fighter pilots who conducted a perfectly executed mission to obliterate Iran’s nuclear program,” Leavitt also posted on X.
A US official who read the assessment noted that it contained a number of caveats and “ifs” and said a more refined report was expected in the coming days and weeks.
Analysts said that, if the assessment was based on satellite imagery, the extent of damage to the deeply buried Fordow uranium enrichment facility would not necessarily be revealed.
Trump has said the attacks were necessary to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. Iran denies it is seeking such a weapon and says its nuclear programme is for peaceful purposes.
Assessing the damage at the Fordow, Isfahan and Natanz nuclear sites is expected to be a difficult task, and the DIA is not the only agency tasked with the job. One source said the assessment was not universally accepted and had generated significant disagreement.
A US official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the US did not yet know the true extent of the damage.
Still, the initial assessment indicated the strikes may not have been nearly as successful as the Trump administration has claimed.
HEGSETH REITERATES STANCE
The sources said that the report found that the US attack had caved in facility entrances and destroyed or damaged infrastructure. However, one added, the strike did not collapse underground buildings.
Restarting operations would basically depend on “how long it takes them to dig out and build or repair” power and water supply facilities, said the second source.
The Washington Post, citing a person familiar the report, said some centrifuges for enriching uranium were intact.
The Pentagon disputed the notion that the damage was insignificant, though it did not dispute that the DIA assessment exists.
Initial military assessments can change as more information comes to light and it is not uncommon for opinions to vary across different US intelligence agencies.
Democrats have previously said Trump’s claims that the weekend strikes eliminated or seriously set back Iran’s nuclear programme were not yet backed by evidence.
“There’s zero evidence that I’ve seen that the nuclear programme was completely and totally obliterated as Donald Trump has claimed,” House of Representatives Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries said on Monday.
Classified briefings on the matter for members of the House of Representatives and Senate were cancelled on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, a shaky ceasefire brokered by Trump appears to have taken hold between Iran and Israel.
“It’s a very fragile ceasefire. Neither side trusts the other at all, and Iran doesn’t trust the US either,” said Ian Parmeter, research scholar at the Australian National University’s Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies.
“It’s not in Iran’s interest for this war to continue,” he told CNA’s Asia First.
“Iran really does need to be able to regroup … the regime itself will want to just fully reestablish its control over the country.”
Parmeter stressed that the ceasefire is only the beginning, since there is an expectation that all parties will return to negotiations over Iran’s nuclear programme.
“The real difficulty here is that even though the negotiations may resume, the capacity for a breakthrough is not high because of the irreconcilable objectives of both Israel and Iran,” he said.
“The Israelis will be very concerned that Iran will simply be dragging out the talks, so it can reconstruct its programme.”
Source: Reuters/fs/ec